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+$6,200No · avg 48¢ → 68¢ · $21.7k+$3,574Under · avg 51¢ → 64¢ · $17.6k · 0 proven with, 1 against−$1,923No · avg 69¢ → 60¢ · $14.1k+$2,547Under · avg 57¢ → 75¢ · $10.6k+$3,248Yes · avg 27¢ → 40¢ · $10.6k−$2,745Over · avg 48¢ → 36¢ · $7,718 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$41RC Deportivo A Coruña · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $6,799−$1,403Yes · avg 40¢ → 32¢ · $6,387
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 13.1 wins, so it did -22.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-22.8 pts
Called / graded
9/18
Expected from price
13.1
Flagged volume
$1.35M
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$265k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? at 68¢) and the edge is -26.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=2
60–80¢
40% vs 73% · n=10
80–100¢
83% vs 81% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.20M
Last 30 days +$19.6k · $480.96M volume · 1,613,412 trades · since Apr 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$31.82M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$1.40M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
184d
92152 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18 | 9 | 13.1 | -22.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $30.7k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $191.5k 9.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $26.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $130.6k 6.4× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $62.4k 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $21.1k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $21.2k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $20.7k | missed |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $57.4k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.8k | called |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.3k | called |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $97.3k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $11.3k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.5¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.3¢ | $31.9k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $60.8k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 93.5¢ | $81.7k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 74¢ | $31.5k | excluded |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 74¢ | $53.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 91.7¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $57.1k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $35.3k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
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