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What this means. A wallet put $142.1k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 30% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$142.1k
BUY Yes @ 30¢ · 476,106 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side3 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Fresh walletOther
What happened
Wallet 0xbc96…b2a7 took Yes (buy) for $142.1k at an average 30¢. At that price the market implied a 30% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $142.1k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
3 fills within 1h+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 30¢ means
30%chance the market gave
+235American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 30¢
- Implied odds
- 29.9%
- Size
- $142.1k
- Placed
- Mar 15, 04:02 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xbc96…b2a7
- Tx
- 0xfb6f3ca5…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-29.9 pts
expected 0.3 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |