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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -11.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-11.1 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$1.21M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,703
Last 30 days −$0 · $6.43M volume · 12,177 trades · since Apr 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$180.7k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$1,808
Closed-position win rate
61%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
199d
346 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 1.3 | -11.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $901.1k 9.8× usual |
excluded |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ | $49.1k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 92¢ | $92.0k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 71¢ | $71.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $96.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x19fc25…