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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -23.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.5 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$708.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$75k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? at 55¢) and the edge is -37.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=2
40–60¢
25% vs 54% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.46M
Last 30 days +$12.3k · $37.46M volume · 28,459 trades · since Jun 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.26M
Open P&L · 170 positions
−$4.68M
Closed-position win rate
87%
192 closed
Wallet age · markets
144d
358 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 2.4 | -23.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov | MED BUY Karen Khachanov @ 32¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina | MED BUY Dalibor Svrcina @ 32¢ | $37.4k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov | LOW BUY Karen Khachanov @ 23¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | LOW BUY Nuno Borges @ 54¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $58.2k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 53¢ | $69.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $54.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 54¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $53.8k | called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 16¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Egypt @ 32¢ | $118.0k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $111.0k 3.5× usual |
called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $16.3k | missed |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 57¢ | $16.5k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $54.0k | missed |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 5.2¢ | $20.8k | missed |
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