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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -15.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.7 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$918.6k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$417.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.66M volume · 34,875 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.85M
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$1.39M
Closed-position win rate
98%
100 closed
Wallet age · markets
126d
121 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | -15.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 76¢ | $197.0k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED SELL Argentina @ 63¢ | $127.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $17.1k | missed |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 6.8¢ | $12.1k | called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 94¢ | $49.8k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 94¢ | $200.1k 4.8× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $232.5k 5.6× usual |
called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $41.5k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
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