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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did +24.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+24.5 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$729.3k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$146.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.96M volume · 9,774 trades · since Jun 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$563.8k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$163.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
488d
1223 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | +24.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH SELL England @ 70¢ | $119.1k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $69.1k 2.8× usual |
called |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 97¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
 LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | LOW BUY T1 @ 99¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 94¢ | $103.2k 4.2× usual |
called |
 Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils | MED BUY Alcaraz @ 87¢ | $50.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
 LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | LOW SELL Gen.G @ 94¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY Gen.G @ 89¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
 T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) | LOW BUY South Africa @ 99.9¢ | $37.4k | excluded |
| T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) | LOW BUY South Africa @ 97.7¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $49.6k 2.0× usual |
called |
 Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
 LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 93¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 98.9¢ | $52.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage | LOW SELL T1 @ 95.5¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
 Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina | LOW BUY Rybakina @ 97¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 99¢ | $70.5k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner | LOW BUY Sinner @ 98.9¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
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