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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did -0.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.2 pts
Called / graded
5/9
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$447.2k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$11k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? at 60¢) and the edge is -5.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 19% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 59% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$45.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.33M volume · 214 trades · since Nov 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$196.5k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$150.2k
Closed-position win rate
89%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
720d
14 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 60¢ | $47.2k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $22.8k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 34¢ | $16.9k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $36.8k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $86.8k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $17.9k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $90.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $78.7k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $50.0k | missed |
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