Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$141
Return on staked
-15.6%
Bets
5/9 won
Edge vs price
-0.2 pts ±15.5
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 24, 06:09 EDTJul 13, 05:35 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | 60¢ | missed | 103d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | 57¢ | missed | 104d ago |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | 34¢ | missed | 104d ago |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | 60¢ | called | 106d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 62¢ | called | 107d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 62¢ | called | 110d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | 72¢ | called | 111d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | 77¢ | called | 116d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 19¢ | missed | 122d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.