← Wallets
+$65.9kNo · avg 71¢ → 86¢ · $388.7k+$2,623Yes · avg 66¢ → 66¢ · $268.6k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$1,893Yes · avg 67¢ → 68¢ · $255.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$237.7kYes · avg 3.1¢ → 62¢ · $250.0k+$11.7kNo · avg 71¢ → 74¢ · $236.0k+$2,551No · avg 91¢ → 92.5¢ · $157.3k+$689No · avg 8.5¢ → 8.5¢ · $117.7k+$1,134No · avg 65¢ → 68¢ · $36.9k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 22. The prices it paid implied about 9.3 wins, so it did +12.2 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+12.2 pts over 22 bets). Without its single best bet: +8.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+12.2 pts
Called / graded
12/22
Expected from price
9.3
Flagged volume
$5.61M
Sample size22 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$782k22 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 11¢) and the edge is +8.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
25% vs 12% · n=4
20–40¢
75% vs 32% · n=4
40–60¢
50% vs 50% · n=12
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9.55M
Last 30 days +$8.06M · $323.48M volume · 279,087 trades · since Jan 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$63.59M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$47.28M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
274d
1212 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 22 | 12 | 9.3 | +12.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Warriors (-3.5) | LOW BUY Grizzlies @ 48¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Warriors (-1.5) | LOW BUY Grizzlies @ 42¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | HIGH BUY Grizzlies @ 40¢ | $122.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 52¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | MED BUY Grizzlies @ 39¢ | $30.6k | called |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 59¢ | $419.2k 8.6× usual |
excluded |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | MED BUY Hornets @ 45¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Hawks (-5.5) | LOW BUY Hornets @ 60¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Magic (-1.5) | MED BUY Magic @ 51¢ | $33.7k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | HIGH BUY Hornets @ 44¢ | $122.8k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Bucks (-1.5) | MED BUY Bucks @ 51¢ | $88.7k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 55¢ | $23.8k | called |
| Spread: Thunder (-7.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 53¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 48¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Spread: Bears (-2.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 54¢ | $34.2k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat | MED BUY Heat @ 54¢ | $81.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-1.5) | MED BUY Hornets @ 50¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Nets | LOW BUY Hornets @ 53¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Bucks vs. Wizards | MED BUY Bucks @ 40¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Wizards (-4.5) | MED BUY Bucks @ 51¢ | $29.6k | excluded |
| Bucks vs. Wizards | MED SELL Wizards @ 60¢ | $171.3k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | MED BUY Grizzlies @ 55¢ | $115.8k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Hawks vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 56¢ | $55.1k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Nets | MED BUY Hornets @ 53¢ | $60.5k | called |
| Hawks vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 56¢ | $87.7k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 62¢ | $382.0k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $102.1k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-5.5) | MED BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $79.4k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Celtics @ 52¢ | $22.5k | missed |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | HIGH BUY 49ers @ 83¢ | $175.6k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 87¢ | $150.5k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | MED BUY Steelers @ 56¢ | $249.3k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | MED BUY Eagles @ 41¢ | $116.5k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | MED BUY Eagles @ 40¢ | $140.7k 2.9× usual |
missed |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | HIGH BUY Broncos @ 44¢ | $494.3k 10.2× usual |
excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 42¢ | $210.2k 4.3× usual |
called |
| Bills vs. Rams | HIGH BUY Bills @ 48¢ | $350.5k 7.2× usual |
excluded |
| Bills vs. Rams | LOW BUY Bills @ 39¢ | $19.5k | called |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | MED BUY 49ers @ 40¢ | $117.3k 2.4× usual |
called |
 Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Bills | HIGH BUY Patriots @ 26¢ | $135.1k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Colts vs. Commanders | HIGH BUY Commanders @ 15¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Jets @ 51¢ | $18.2k | missed |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $94.9k | excluded |
 Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $98.7k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | MED BUY Falcons @ 45¢ | $83.5k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | MED BUY Packers @ 60¢ | $80.5k | excluded |
 Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16? | MED SELL No @ 56¢ | $40.6k | excluded |
 UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Gillian Robertson @ 36¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 64¢ | $17.5k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $149.4k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.1¢ | $11.2k | missed |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY No @ 93.3¢ | $163.2k 3.4× usual |
called |
 Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 0.8¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $17.9k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY No @ 23¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $50.6k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | HIGH BUY No @ 17¢ | $36.5k | missed |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $86.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Norway (-2.5) | MED BUY Norway @ 35¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 60¢ | $48.6k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Clippers | MED BUY Nets @ 25¢ | $10.8k | missed |
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