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What this means. A wallet put $272.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 46% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$272.9k
BUY Yes @ 46¢ · 593,206 shares in 5 fills
Size ≥ $250k5 fills in 1hSports
What happened
Wallet hotwheels11 took Yes (buy) for $272.9k at an average 46¢. At that price the market implied a 46% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $272.9k+3
5 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 46¢ means
46%chance the market gave
+117American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 46¢
- Implied odds
- 46.0%
- As American odds
- +117 no vig
- Size
- $272.9k
- Placed
- Jul 01, 11:42 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 01, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- hotwheels11
- Tx
- 0x4d44de4e…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-46.0 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -46 ptsYes price · entry 46¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $49.5k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 90.5¢ | $99.8k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 88¢ | $62.5k | excluded |