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+$14Yes · avg 60¢ → 64¢ · $254 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -50.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-50.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$128.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$209.4k
Last 30 days +$28.2k · $7.28M volume · 11,039 trades · since Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.27M
Open P&L · 384 positions
−$1.34M
Closed-position win rate
85%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
187d
1018 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | -50.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Grizzlies vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 60¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
 France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 48¢ | $29.4k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $26.6k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 99.8¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3cf6af…