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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -4.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.4 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$285.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$324
Last 30 days +$0 · $614.6k volume · 52 trades · since Apr 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$324
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
50%
8 closed
Wallet age · markets
200d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | -4.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $101.8k | missed |
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 94.5¢ | $78.1k | missed |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $105.7k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x017f1c…