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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +29.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+29.2 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$448.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$165.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.85M volume · 7,370 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$165.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
39%
119 closed
Wallet age · markets
126d
116 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 2.8 | +29.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: France (-1.5) | LOW SELL France @ 19¢ | $20.9k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $57.6k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $51.6k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $58.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 74¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $29.1k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 76¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $13.3k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $64.8k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $36.5k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL No @ 57¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | MED BUY Portugal @ 65¢ | $44.2k | called |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | LOW BUY Portugal @ 60¢ | $11.1k | called |
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