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What this means. A wallet put $36.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 73% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$36.5k
BUY Yes @ 73¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet northerndancer took Yes (buy) for $36.5k at an average 73¢. At that price the market implied a 73% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $36.5k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 73¢ means
73%chance the market gave
−270American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 73¢
- Implied odds
- 73.0%
- As American odds
- −270 no vig
- Size
- $36.5k
- Placed
- Jun 29, 15:07 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 29, 16:30 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- northerndancer
- Tx
- 0x3ff652e1…
This wallet's graded record
4/4+29.2 pts
expected 2.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -73 ptsYes price · entry 73¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $28.4k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $28.1k | excluded |