← Wallets
+$1,370No · avg 54¢ → 91¢ · $3,401−$299Yes · avg 30¢ → 26¢ · $2,075 · 0 proven with, 1 against+$165No · avg 87¢ → 95.5¢ · $1,831+$204Yes · avg 42¢ → 51¢ · $1,057+$98No · avg 50¢ → 88¢ · $226−$683Yes · avg 43¢ → 8¢ · $154−$81Yamal · avg 41¢ → 22¢ · $92
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -0.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-0.1 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$673.0k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$52k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 38¢) and the edge is -15.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 34% · n=2
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$17.6k
Last 30 days −$57.1k · $12.65M volume · 9,330 trades · since Apr 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.60M
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$23.2k
Closed-position win rate
87%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
194d
651 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -2.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 38¢ | $30.9k | called |
 Eagles vs. Titans | MED BUY Eagles @ 75¢ | $147.2k 6.5× usual |
called |
| Lions vs. Bills | LOW BUY Lions @ 31¢ | $16.1k | missed |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY No @ 23¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $32.6k | missed |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $65.2k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92.5¢ | $12.1k | called |
 Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? | LOW BUY No @ 33¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $139.4k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 67¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
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