← Wallets
−$534No · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $21.9k+$381No · avg 89¢ → 91.5¢ · $16.9k+$2,266Yes · avg 74¢ → 94.5¢ · $10.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$100Yes · avg 91¢ → 92¢ · $9,200+$50No · avg 91¢ → 91.5¢ · $9,150+$27No · avg 96.6¢ → 97¢ · $8,267+$12No · avg 87¢ → 87¢ · $6,174+$81No · avg 82¢ → 84¢ · $2,804
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did +39.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+39.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$181.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$81.8k
Last 30 days +$3,907 · $11.78M volume · 13,133 trades · since May 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 484 closed
+$144.9k
Open P&L · 165 positions
−$130.0k
Closed-position win rate
54%
484 closed
Wallet age · markets
159d
463 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +39.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $12.4k | pending |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 40¢ | $13.2k | called |
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $28.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $49.5k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
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