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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +21.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +17.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+21.5 pts
Called / graded
5/10
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$1.33M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$389k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? at 42¢) and the edge is +17.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 8% · n=5
40–60¢
100% vs 49% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$868.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $21.06M volume · 8,709 trades · since Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.15M
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$1.27M
Closed-position win rate
85%
26 closed
Wallet age · markets
140d
39 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 5 | 2.8 | +21.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY No @ 52¢ | $460.3k 8.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $20.8k | called |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $82.9k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY No @ 47¢ | $275.3k 5.2× usual |
called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $168.0k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $96.2k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $42.0k | called |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.5¢ | $55.2k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.5¢ | $51.0k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 8.4¢ | $50.8k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 8.4¢ | $16.8k | missed |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 8.3¢ | $11.9k | missed |
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