Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$42
Return on staked
+4.2%
Bets
5/10 won
Edge vs price
+21.5 pts ±12.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -8.4 pts (0/5). Newer half: +51.5 pts (5/5).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 07, 08:40 EDTJun 19, 16:03 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | 56¢ | called | 127d ago |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 53¢ | called | 127d ago |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | 47¢ | called | 128d ago |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | 44¢ | called | 133d ago |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | 42¢ | called | 133d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 8¢ | missed | 135d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 8¢ | missed | 136d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 8¢ | missed | 137d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 8¢ | missed | 138d ago |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 8¢ | missed | 139d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.