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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did +7.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.1 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$435.0k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$40k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? at 53¢) and the edge is +1.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 53% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 62% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$104.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.17M volume · 114 trades · since Jun 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$109.6k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$5,000
Closed-position win rate
46%
99 closed
Wallet age · markets
131d
99 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 5 | 4.4 | +7.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $80.0k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $60.0k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Netherlands @ 50¢ | $40.0k | missed |
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