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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 21. The prices it paid implied about 9.2 wins, so it did -1.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-1.2 pts over 21 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.2 pts
Called / graded
9/21
Expected from price
9.2
Flagged volume
$5.69M
Sample size21 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$185k21 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves at 31¢) and the edge is -4.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
20% vs 35% · n=10
40–60¢
75% vs 47% · n=8
60–80¢
33% vs 67% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$4.82M
Last 30 days +$143.9k · $351.30M volume · 284,679 trades · since Jun 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$58.80M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$18.81M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
142d
11499 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 21 | 9 | 9.2 | -1.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 81¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Eagles @ 58¢ | $111.5k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 64¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 51¢ | $135.0k 4.1× usual |
called |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 69¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Rams @ 58¢ | $77.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 76¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 57¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Vikings @ 70¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 60¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | MED BUY Vikings @ 69¢ | $40.2k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | MED BUY Cowboys @ 48¢ | $38.7k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Packers | MED BUY Packers @ 38¢ | $42.0k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Packers | LOW BUY Falcons @ 75¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Packers | MED BUY Packers @ 61¢ | $162.3k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
 Texas A&M vs. LSU | LOW BUY Texas A&M @ 24¢ | $16.1k | missed |
 Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | MED BUY Washington Nationals @ 38¢ | $182.9k 5.5× usual |
called |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves | MED BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 31¢ | $31.0k | called |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 94.5¢ | $113.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Giants @ 30¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | HIGH BUY Giants @ 28¢ | $196.1k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Colts @ 50¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | MED BUY Chiefs @ 69¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Colts @ 39¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 66¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Chargers | MED BUY Raiders @ 52¢ | $70.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Raiders vs. Chargers | LOW BUY Chargers @ 62¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Packers @ 56¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Panthers @ 84¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Jets @ 46¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | MED BUY Falcons @ 44¢ | $227.6k 6.9× usual |
missed |
| Packers vs. Jets | MED BUY Jets @ 39¢ | $79.4k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | MED BUY Ole Miss @ 76¢ | $58.3k | excluded |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY LSU @ 34¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY Ole Miss @ 43¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY Ole Miss @ 43¢ | $45.1k | called |
| Lions vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 70¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | LOW BUY Steelers @ 92¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Rams | MED BUY 49ers @ 81¢ | $55.6k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Chargers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 84¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 55¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW BUY Detroit Tigers @ 39¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $51.2k | excluded |
 UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Kamaru Usman @ 33¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 75¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 49¢ | $140.5k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $193.7k 5.8× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $46.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $142.4k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 76¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 90¢ | $48.7k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 43¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 48¢ | $186.0k 5.6× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 50¢ | $15.9k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY No @ 28¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | HIGH BUY Sweden @ 68¢ | $288.4k 8.7× usual |
missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $68.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $258.9k 7.8× usual |
called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $136.6k 4.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 35¢ | $34.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 34¢ | $60.9k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $73.1k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 42¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | HIGH BUY No @ 31¢ | $142.9k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Brazil (-3.5) | MED BUY Haiti @ 69¢ | $34.1k | called |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $206.0k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $147.2k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | HIGH BUY No @ 37¢ | $392.6k 11.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $216.5k 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY No @ 35¢ | $36.8k | excluded |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 42¢ | $68.1k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 41¢ | $26.2k | called |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $22.7k | missed |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY No @ 37¢ | $37.4k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Spurs @ 71¢ | $113.8k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Belal Muhammad @ 51¢ | $61.3k | excluded |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 65¢ | $13.5k | missed |
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