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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +0.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -7.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+0.1 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$975.7k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$2k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? at 56¢) and the edge is -7.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
60% vs 55% · n=5
60–80¢
50% vs 62% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$349.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.51M volume · 1,728 trades · since May 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$328.5k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
44%
195 closed
Wallet age · markets
173d
203 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $29.8k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 48¢ | $45.4k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $52.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED SELL Yes @ 61¢ | $61.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $59.5k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 28¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 53¢ | $16.0k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED SELL Over @ 47¢ | $94.0k 2.8× usual |
called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 48¢ | $96.0k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 72¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 63¢ | $37.8k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $56.0k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $24.0k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $46.4k | called |
| Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 55¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 47¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 46¢ | $19.6k | called |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 | MED SELL Over @ 67¢ | $48.3k | called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $11.9k | missed |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 69¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 47¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 45¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
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