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What this means. A wallet put $176.1k on not No, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+12.9 pts over 25 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$176.1k
SELL No @ 95.5¢ · 184,368 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hProven wallet3.6× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet ndb1 took No (sell) for $176.1k at an average 95.5¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $176.1k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.5¢
- Implied odds
- 4.5%
- As American odds
- +2127 no vig
- Size
- $176.1k
- Placed
- Jun 29, 14:41 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 29, 22:36 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- ndb1
- Tx
- 0x9298b72e…
This wallet's graded record
16/25+12.9 pts
expected 12.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -4 ptsNo price · entry 95.5¢ · resolved No · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $106.2k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 97.1¢ | $69.7k | excluded |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 95.8¢ | $127.9k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 95.5¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 5.9¢ | $139.3k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $18.3k | called |