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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did +18.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+18.5 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$125.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$116.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.15M volume · 1,458 trades · since Feb 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$121.9k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$2,945
Closed-position win rate
89%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
250d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.4 | +18.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | MED BUY No @ 84¢ | $99.1k 6.1× usual |
called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $16.2k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $10.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf66166…