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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did -6.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-6.7 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$20.07M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$913k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 36¢) and the edge is -20.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 36% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 57% · n=3
60–80¢
50% vs 67% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.00M
Last 30 days +$0 · $121.56M volume · 6,984 trades · since Nov 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9.80M
Open P&L · 45 positions
−$8.69M
Closed-position win rate
69%
202 closed
Wallet age · markets
340d
252 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.4 | -6.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $97.5k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ | $46.6k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $284.7k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $371.5k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $245.0k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | MED SELL Yes @ 98.8¢ | $184.4k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $108.5k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $150.4k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $100.9k | excluded |
 Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | MED SELL New York Yankees @ 99.9¢ | $865.0k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | HIGH BUY New York Yankees @ 58¢ | $504.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 79¢ | $549.3k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $405.0k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $262.0k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $548.3k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.38M 6.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $887.1k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals | HIGH BUY Washington Nationals @ 57¢ | $625.1k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.24M 5.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $98.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $552.9k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics | HIGH BUY Athletics @ 56¢ | $382.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | HIGH BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $308.0k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 36¢ | $97.9k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 36¢ | $718.5k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | MED SELL Milwaukee Brewers @ 99.9¢ | $731.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED SELL Yes @ 98.2¢ | $702.0k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $325.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | HIGH BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 52¢ | $379.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $1.50M 6.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $165.0k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | MED SELL Los Angeles Dodgers @ 94.2¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | HIGH BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 65¢ | $295.8k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $640.1k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | MED SELL Miami Marlins @ 99.9¢ | $317.0k | excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | MED BUY Miami Marlins @ 56¢ | $168.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $283.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED SELL Thunder @ 56¢ | $110.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $197.8k | excluded |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 53¢ | $49.2k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | MED SELL Yes @ 56¢ | $83.4k | missed |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $72.0k | called |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $160.9k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $73.4k | called |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 97.2¢ | $164.6k | excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 70¢ | $110.7k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED SELL Nuggets @ 52¢ | $112.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 73¢ | $156.5k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 53¢ | $53.1k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 99.9¢ | $87.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 60¢ | $52.6k | called |
 Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5) | HIGH BUY Wisconsin Badgers @ 54¢ | $337.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | MED SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $383.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | MED BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $216.3k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $181.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $513.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $340.0k | excluded |
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