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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -26.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.3 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$8.82M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$3.6M5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? at 53¢) and the edge is -44.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
20% vs 46% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$11.08M
Last 30 days +$0 · $50.68M volume · 7,953 trades · since Jun 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$11.08M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
29%
17 closed
Wallet age · markets
119d
17 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 2.3 | -26.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY No @ 47¢ | $930.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY No @ 45¢ | $1.40M | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $1.38M | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY No @ 44¢ | $1.97M 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY No @ 41¢ | $401.6k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $652.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $899.5k | missed |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $45.2k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $1.15M | called |
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