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What this means. A wallet put $1.97M on No, at a price that gave it a 44% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$1.97M
BUY No @ 44¢ · 4,432,033 shares in 12 fills
Size ≥ $250k12 fills in 1h2.1× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet coldsway took No (buy) for $1.97M at an average 44¢. At that price the market implied a 44% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $1.97M+3
12 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 44¢ means
44%chance the market gave
+125American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 44¢
- Implied odds
- 44.4%
- As American odds
- +125 no vig
- Size
- $1.97M
- Placed
- Jun 28, 13:14 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 28, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- coldsway
- Tx
- 0xb3bb83aa…
This wallet's graded record
1/5-26.3 pts
expected 2.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -44 ptsNo price · entry 44¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $131.1k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ | $71.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |