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What this means. A wallet put $401.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 41% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$401.6k
BUY No @ 41¢ · 979,540 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $250k3 fills in 1hSports
What happened
Wallet coldsway took No (buy) for $401.6k at an average 41¢. At that price the market implied a 41% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $401.6k+3
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 41¢ means
41%chance the market gave
+144American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 41¢
- Implied odds
- 41.0%
- As American odds
- +144 no vig
- Size
- $401.6k
- Placed
- Jun 28, 11:17 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 28, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- coldsway
- Tx
- 0x711ad818…
This wallet's graded record
1/5-26.3 pts
expected 2.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -41 ptsNo price · entry 41¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $131.1k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ | $71.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |