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What this means. A wallet put $348.6k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$348.6k
BUY Yes @ 86¢ · 405,365 shares
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite4.2× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet 0x08a3…8666 took Yes (buy) for $348.6k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $348.6k+3
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−614American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 86.0%
- As American odds
- −614 no vig
- Size
- $348.6k
- Placed
- Jul 03, 16:58 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 03, 18:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x08a3…8666
- Tx
- 0xda4bab90…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-86.0 pts
expected 0.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -86 ptsYes price · entry 86¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $90.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $79.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $40.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $999.0k 19.2× usual |
excluded |