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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -13.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.8 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$764.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$49.9k
Last 30 days −$51.5k · $5.17M volume · 1,770 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$103.4k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$154.4k
Closed-position win rate
44%
142 closed
Wallet age · markets
133d
146 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 1.6 | -13.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cardinals vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 84¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | LOW SELL Panthers @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Panthers @ 74¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 80¢ | $44.8k | excluded |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW SELL Texans @ 99.9¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 42¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Texans @ 79¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | MED BUY Jaguars @ 53¢ | $35.8k | excluded |
 Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-18? | LOW BUY No @ 34¢ | $22.0k | missed |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY 49ers @ 70¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 72¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | MED BUY 49ers @ 43¢ | $36.3k | excluded |
| Bengals vs. Texans | LOW SELL Bengals @ 99.9¢ | $37.0k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW SELL Panthers @ 99.9¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | MED BUY Packers @ 58¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Panthers @ 70¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $24.2k | missed |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $28.1k | excluded |
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $13.8k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $79.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $90.9k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $86.6k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
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