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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -48.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-48.4 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$421.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$280.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.56M volume · 2,840 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$203.7k
Open P&L · 86 positions
−$471.7k
Closed-position win rate
52%
130 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
211 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | -48.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $69.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 58¢ | $41.5k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $58.4k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED SELL Yes @ 76¢ | $71.1k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $81.9k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
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