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+$287Yes · avg 12¢ → 15¢ · $1,287
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -22.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-22.9 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$549.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$105k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Norway vs. England: Team to Advance at 64¢) and the edge is -37.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 14% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 48% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$154.7k
Last 30 days −$235 · $20.16M volume · 2,325 trades · since Jan 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$832.9k
Open P&L · 81 positions
−$966.4k
Closed-position win rate
79%
29 closed
Wallet age · markets
266d
110 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 2.1 | -22.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $125.6k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $39.3k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $50.2k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Switzerland @ 26¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 59¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 64¢ | $33.6k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 45¢ | $40.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $23.4k | missed |
 Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 3¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL No @ 60¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 39¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $90.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 68¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
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