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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 19. The prices it paid implied about 9.8 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +3.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
11/19
Expected from price
9.8
Flagged volume
$965.8k
Sample size19 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$37k19 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will England win on 2026-07-11? at 48¢) and the edge is +3.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=1
40–60¢
62% vs 51% · n=16
60–80¢
50% vs 60% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$302.6k
Last 30 days −$10.7k · $10.66M volume · 4,914 trades · since Jun 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.88M
Open P&L · 239 positions
−$2.19M
Closed-position win rate
89%
311 closed
Wallet age · markets
143d
519 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 19 | 11 | 9.8 | +6.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 65¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $21.7k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $31.6k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 46¢ | $72.0k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $46.6k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $26.0k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $37.8k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $16.2k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $50.9k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 50¢ | $79.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $35.2k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $66.5k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $20.7k | called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $56.6k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 51¢ | $18.0k | called |
| England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 46¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $31.8k | missed |
| England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 53¢ | $44.6k | missed |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $44.7k | excluded |
| Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 56¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 55¢ | $16.5k | called |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | MED BUY Cabo Verde @ 44¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $36.3k | excluded |
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