← Wallets
−$612Yes · avg 83¢ → 58¢ · $1,462+$78No · avg 87¢ → 94.6¢ · $977+$112No · avg 82¢ → 94.5¢ · $881+$242Yes · avg 65¢ → 93.5¢ · $795+$260Yes · avg 62¢ → 94.5¢ · $756 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$89No · avg 83¢ → 97.8¢ · $586+$7No · avg 86¢ → 87¢ · $580+$20No · avg 78¢ → 81¢ · $540
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 7.0 wins, so it did -8.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-8.0 pts
Called / graded
6/12
Expected from price
7.0
Flagged volume
$303.5k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$16k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? at 55¢) and the edge is -12.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=2
40–60¢
43% vs 55% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 65% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 85% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$17.2k
Last 30 days −$1,508 · $1.98M volume · 2,773 trades · since Jul 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$232.7k
Open P&L · 76 positions
−$209.5k
Closed-position win rate
85%
208 closed
Wallet age · markets
472d
281 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 12 | 6 | 7.0 | -8.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $20.0k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 65¢ | $50.0k 5.0× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $43.9k 4.4× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 54¢ | $20.0k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY No @ 45¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $64.5k 6.5× usual |
called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $10.0k | missed |
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