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+$96Over · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $9,471+$3Over · avg 53¢ → 54¢ · $305
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -10.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.1 pts
Called / graded
3/8
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$2.34M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$90k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 at 41¢) and the edge is -20.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
38% vs 48% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.15M
Last 30 days +$672.4k · $20.40M volume · 3,829 trades · since Jun 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5.08M
Open P&L · 63 positions
−$3.88M
Closed-position win rate
97%
60 closed
Wallet age · markets
120d
122 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 3 | 3.8 | -10.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Lakers (-8.5) | LOW BUY Lakers @ 51¢ | $20.3k | missed |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | LOW BUY Warriors @ 51¢ | $29.6k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 235.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $31.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Pacers (-7.5) | LOW BUY Pacers @ 50¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Raptors (-8.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $40.5k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 53¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Magic (-1.5) | LOW BUY Magic @ 51¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Celtics (-2.5) | LOW BUY Celtics @ 52¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | MED BUY Bulls @ 48¢ | $130.3k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 49¢ | $52.8k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $47.4k | missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) | MED BUY Real Madrid CF @ 42¢ | $132.8k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Real Madrid CF vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $177.5k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 41¢ | $27.1k | called |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $66.5k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 50¢ | $208.0k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | MED BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $72.7k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5 | MED BUY Over @ 50¢ | $82.0k | excluded |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 | MED SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $112.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 27¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) | LOW BUY AEK @ 48¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 | MED BUY Over @ 44¢ | $161.7k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $108.3k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 37¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 40¢ | $52.1k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY France @ 53¢ | $57.5k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $105.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 43¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $40.4k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $147.2k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $67.5k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $113.1k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | MED BUY South Africa @ 30¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 49¢ | $27.7k | missed |
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