Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$119
Return on staked
-14.9%
Bets
3/8 won
Edge vs price
-10.1 pts ±17.6
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 27, 14:31 EDTOct 23, 19:17 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Lakers (-8.5) | 51¢ | missed | 13h ago |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | 51¢ | missed | 13h ago |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | 49¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 44¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21? | 43¢ | called | 3d ago |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | 53¢ | missed | 109d ago |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | 49¢ | missed | 118d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.