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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -7.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$584.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$25.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.42M volume · 3,315 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$31.3k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$6,083
Closed-position win rate
90%
124 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
121 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.3 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -18.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ | $29.3k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 94¢ | $47.0k | missed |
 Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $37.9k | excluded |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $249.7k 7.7× usual |
called |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
 Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $48.5k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $13.9k | missed |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $36.1k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfc007e…