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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.9 wins, so it did +1.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.3 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.9
Flagged volume
$304.0k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$56k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance at 46¢) and the edge is -6.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
40% vs 52% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$120.0k
Last 30 days −$337.0k · $3.82M volume · 2,185 trades · since Oct 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 427 closed
+$618.2k
Open P&L · 86 positions
−$720.7k
Closed-position win rate
61%
427 closed
Wallet age · markets
744d
512 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 5 | 4.9 | +1.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28? | MED BUY No @ 52¢ | $44.9k | missed |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $38.7k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $34.7k | missed |
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $19.5k | called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 65¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $77.4k 2.1× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 54¢ | $48.0k | missed |
 Oilers vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Oilers @ 52¢ | $10.8k | called |
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