Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$6
Return on staked
+0.7%
Bets
5/8 won
Edge vs price
+1.3 pts ±16.6
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 08, 12:34 EDTSep 28, 13:06 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28? | 52¢ | missed | 25d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13? | 79¢ | called | 41d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? | 55¢ | missed | 57d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 46¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | 65¢ | called | 105d ago |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | 86¢ | called | 109d ago |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | 54¢ | missed | 109d ago |
| Oilers vs. Sharks | 52¢ | called | 199d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.