← Wallets
−$1,822No · avg 88¢ → 86¢ · $133.0k+$1,357No · avg 97.2¢ → 98.2¢ · $128.4k+$2,231No · avg 91.8¢ → 94¢ · $96.3k+$6,768No · avg 81¢ → 98.9¢ · $38.6k+$4,077Yes · avg 81¢ → 93.5¢ · $31.1k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$89No · avg 93.1¢ → 93.5¢ · $21.9k+$5,245Yes · avg 9.8¢ → 14¢ · $18.9k+$674No · avg 90¢ → 93.5¢ · $16.8k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 17. The prices it paid implied about 7.4 wins, so it did +9.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 17 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.6 pts
Called / graded
9/17
Expected from price
7.4
Flagged volume
$1.68M
Sample size17 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$121k17 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 16¢) and the edge is +4.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
29% vs 14% · n=7
20–40¢
0% vs 25% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 54% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 97% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$245.2k
Last 30 days +$4,811 · $32.46M volume · 10,724 trades · since Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$389.2k
Open P&L · 84 positions
−$623.1k
Closed-position win rate
79%
211 closed
Wallet age · markets
140d
284 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 14 | 7 | 5.6 | +10.3 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -25.0 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +21.5 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd10491…