4qfrankie

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did -34.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP?+$1,982No · avg 90¢ → 99¢ · $21.9k Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?+$61No · avg 94.8¢ → 95.8¢ · $6,413 Will Dak Prescott win the 2026 NFL MVP?+$273No · avg 92.1¢ → 98.5¢ · $4,198 Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?−$745Yes · avg 7¢ → 5.5¢ · $2,742 Will the New York Rangers make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?+$4No · avg 59¢ → 62¢ · $101 Will Jalen Hurts win the 2026 NFL MVP?+$0No · avg 96.2¢ → 97.5¢ · $17 Will Sam Leavitt win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?−$10Yes · avg 4.4¢ → 2.5¢ · $14

Price-adjusted edge

-34.6 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

2.0

Flagged volume

$170.7k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$98.3k

Last 30 days −$16.7k · $5.37M volume · 10,853 trades · since Feb 05, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$444.8k

Open P&L · 177 positions

−$347.3k

Closed-position win rate

68%

355 closed

Wallet age · markets

626d

514 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.7	-35.2 pts
Other	1	0	0.3	-33.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Patriots vs. Bills	LOW BUY Bills @ 74¢	$14.8k	74%	20d ago	missed
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY No @ 96.5¢	$144.8k 9.8× usual	96%	123d ago	called
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢	$11.2k	33%	271d ago	missed

Patriots vs. Billsmissed

BUY Bills @ 74¢$14.8k

LOW 4qfrankie · 20d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 96.5¢$144.8k

MED 4qfrankie · 123d ago

Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?missed

BUY Yes @ 33¢$11.2k

LOW 4qfrankie · 271d ago

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