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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +7.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.3 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$426.0k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$48k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? at 43¢) and the edge is -2.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 50% · n=2
60–80¢
0% vs 60% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$597.5k
Last 30 days −$2 · $13.01M volume · 15,532 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.43M
Open P&L · 166 positions
−$1.82M
Closed-position win rate
100%
254 closed
Wallet age · markets
208d
420 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 3.1 | -2.6 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +57.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $173.0k 6.3× usual |
called |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $85.4k 3.1× usual |
called |
 Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 1.1¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.2¢ | $27.4k | called |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 6.5¢ | $16.2k | missed |
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $90.5k 3.3× usual |
missed |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $15.9k | called |
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