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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did -51.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-51.7 pts
Called / graded
0/9
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$1.05M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$243k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? at 23¢) and the edge is -55.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=5
60–80¢
0% vs 68% · n=1
80–100¢
0% vs 84% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$12.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $14.35M volume · 1,722 trades · since Jun 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.73M
Open P&L · 297 positions
−$1.76M
Closed-position win rate
82%
176 closed
Wallet age · markets
142d
529 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 0 | 4.7 | -51.7 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x85bbb0…