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kgvdotcom

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +4.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.6 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$8.94M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$142.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.73M volume · 1,076 trades · since Nov 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$142.1k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$286
Closed-position win rate
83%
89 closed
Wallet age · markets
719d
87 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports221.9+3.3 pts
Other110.9+7.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
France vs. England: Team to WinLOW BUY England @ 97.5¢ $30.6k98% 97d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $97.9k98% 106d agoexcluded
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $98.1k98% 106d agoexcluded
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $97.6k98% 108d agoexcluded
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ $99.3k97% 108d agocalled
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $102.1k0% 109d agoexcluded
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $98.0k99% 109d agoexcluded
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $300.4k
3.3× usual
100% 109d agoexcluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 96.9¢ $99.4k97% 109d agocalled
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $299.4k
3.3× usual
100% 110d agoexcluded
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $299.7k
3.3× usual
100% 112d agoexcluded
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $298.7k
3.3× usual
100% 113d agoexcluded
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $299.4k
3.3× usual
0% 113d agoexcluded
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $299.4k
3.3× usual
100% 115d agoexcluded
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $184.5k
2.0× usual
100% 115d agoexcluded
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $393.6k
4.3× usual
98% 115d agoexcluded
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $693.3k
7.6× usual
0% 115d agoexcluded
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $693.3k
7.6× usual
100% 115d agoexcluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?HIGH SELL No @ 96.2¢ $693.8k
7.6× usual
4% 115d agomissed
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 98.8¢ $709.7k
7.8× usual
99% 116d agoexcluded
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $711.9k
7.8× usual
0% 116d agoexcluded
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $200.4k
2.2× usual
98% 135d agoexcluded
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?MED BUY No @ 98¢ $442.4k
4.8× usual
98% 137d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?MED BUY No @ 92.7¢ $36.3k93% 154d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $78.2k1% 184d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $12.0k100% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ $78.3k99% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $59.2k100% 194d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $104.7k0% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.4¢ $27.8k96% 207d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $24.3k98% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $51.8k98% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $29.0k98% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $100.0k99% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $54.7k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $19.7k98% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $56.1k99% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $43.3k98% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $62.4k99% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $40.1k98% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $91.5k99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $39.0k99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $40.0k98% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $49.7k99% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $23.9k98% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $101.7k99% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $105.3k99% 253d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $14.3k99% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $103.4k0% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $100.9k98% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $21.1k100% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $21.1k0% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $15.1k99% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $10.1k1% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $21.1k98% 271d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $37.0k98% 272d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $21.8k0% 353d agoexcluded
France vs. England: Team to Winexcluded
BUY England @ 97.5¢$30.6k
LOW kgvdotcom · 97d ago
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$97.9k
LOW kgvdotcom · 106d ago
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$98.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 106d ago
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$97.6k
LOW kgvdotcom · 108d ago
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
BUY No @ 96.5¢$99.3k
MED kgvdotcom · 108d ago
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$102.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 109d ago
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$98.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 109d ago
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$300.4k
LOW kgvdotcom · 109d ago
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$99.4k
MED kgvdotcom · 109d ago
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$299.4k
LOW kgvdotcom · 110d ago
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$299.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 112d ago
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$298.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 113d ago
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$299.4k
MED kgvdotcom · 113d ago
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$299.4k
LOW kgvdotcom · 115d ago
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$184.5k
LOW kgvdotcom · 115d ago
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$393.6k
LOW kgvdotcom · 115d ago
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$693.3k
MED kgvdotcom · 115d ago
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$693.3k
LOW kgvdotcom · 115d ago
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed
SELL No @ 96.2¢$693.8k
HIGH kgvdotcom · 115d ago
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$709.7k
MED kgvdotcom · 116d ago
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$711.9k
MED kgvdotcom · 116d ago
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$200.4k
LOW kgvdotcom · 135d ago
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$442.4k
MED kgvdotcom · 137d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?called
BUY No @ 92.7¢$36.3k
MED kgvdotcom · 154d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$78.2k
LOW kgvdotcom · 184d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$12.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 194d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$78.3k
LOW kgvdotcom · 194d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$59.2k
LOW kgvdotcom · 194d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$104.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 206d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 96.4¢$27.8k
MED kgvdotcom · 207d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$24.3k
LOW kgvdotcom · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$51.8k
LOW kgvdotcom · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$29.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$100.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$54.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$19.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$56.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$43.3k
LOW kgvdotcom · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$62.4k
LOW kgvdotcom · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$40.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$91.5k
LOW kgvdotcom · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$39.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$40.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$49.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.8¢$23.9k
LOW kgvdotcom · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$101.7k
LOW kgvdotcom · 248d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$105.3k
LOW kgvdotcom · 253d ago
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$14.3k
LOW kgvdotcom · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$103.4k
LOW kgvdotcom · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$100.9k
LOW kgvdotcom · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$21.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$21.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$15.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$10.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$21.1k
LOW kgvdotcom · 271d ago
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$37.0k
LOW kgvdotcom · 272d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$21.8k
LOW kgvdotcom · 353d ago

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