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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -37.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-37.7 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$169.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$189.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $490.0k volume · 7 trades · since Jul 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$184.6k
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
106d
2 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -37.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 24¢ | $43.2k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $126.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xecb8a3…