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What this means. A wallet put $43.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 24% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$43.2k
BUY Yes @ 24¢ · 181,970 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hFresh walletSports
What happened
Wallet 0xecb8…2a47 took Yes (buy) for $43.2k at an average 24¢. At that price the market implied a 24% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $43.2k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 24¢ means
24%chance the market gave
+321American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 24¢
- Implied odds
- 23.8%
- As American odds
- +321 no vig
- Size
- $43.2k
- Placed
- Jul 10, 17:56 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 11, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xecb8…2a47
- Tx
- 0xe9e2f00a…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-37.7 pts
expected 0.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -24 ptsYes price · entry 24¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | MED SELL No @ 89¢ | $89.2k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ | $15.3k | excluded |