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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did +27.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+27.4 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$2.14M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$822.5k
Last 30 days −$211.2k · $35.92M volume · 50,911 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6.54M
Open P&L · 83 positions
−$5.69M
Closed-position win rate
83%
77 closed
Wallet age · markets
126d
151 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | +27.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW SELL Texans @ 99.9¢ | $61.6k | excluded |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | MED BUY Jaguars @ 55¢ | $188.6k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Ravens @ 42¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY 49ers @ 71¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY 49ers @ 67¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Eagles @ 57¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | MED BUY 49ers @ 59¢ | $42.0k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | MED BUY Chiefs @ 66¢ | $64.2k | excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW SELL Giants @ 99.9¢ | $112.1k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 63¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 67¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | LOW BUY Raiders @ 62¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Chargers | LOW BUY Chargers @ 64¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW SELL Panthers @ 99.9¢ | $53.3k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 60¢ | $42.0k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Titans | MED BUY Titans @ 39¢ | $71.9k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Packers @ 56¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Panthers @ 69¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
 Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? | LOW BUY No @ 19¢ | $24.1k | excluded |
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 42¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $66.9k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 37¢ | $88.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY No @ 61¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $51.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY No @ 14¢ | $44.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | HIGH BUY No @ 24¢ | $202.6k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY No @ 28¢ | $102.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $218.2k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $84.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $11.3k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $80.4k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 37¢ | $60.1k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 31¢ | $69.2k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY No @ 34¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
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