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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +47.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +44.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+47.5 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$2.11M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$463k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? at 38¢) and the edge is +44.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 38% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 56% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.70M
Last 30 days +$0 · $26.77M volume · 18,208 trades · since May 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5.14M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
85%
46 closed
Wallet age · markets
169d
76 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 5 | 2.6 | +47.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $273.5k 2.1× usual |
called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 52¢ | $69.5k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 52¢ | $253.7k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Mexico @ 47¢ | $337.2k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Under @ 53¢ | $113.9k | called |
| Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 68¢ | $130.2k | excluded |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 60¢ | $42.6k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $51.2k | called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $378.0k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $348.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | MED BUY Seattle Mariners @ 56¢ | $112.0k | excluded |
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