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+$72Seahawks · avg 58¢ → 58¢ · $8,441+$179Bengals · avg 50¢ → 52¢ · $3,757+$5Lions · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $498
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 10.2 wins, so it did -6.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.9 pts
Called / graded
9/18
Expected from price
10.2
Flagged volume
$7.38M
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$72k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Falcons vs. Saints at 48¢) and the edge is -10.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=2
40–60¢
50% vs 52% · n=10
60–80¢
60% vs 69% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 80% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.74M
Last 30 days +$549.6k · $115.61M volume · 69,423 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$21.22M
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$23.0k
Closed-position win rate
80%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
132d
600 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18 | 9 | 10.2 | -6.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Pelicans vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Jazz @ 51¢ | $12.5k | called |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 48¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | LOW BUY Kings @ 51¢ | $10.2k | called |
 Steelers vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 44¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 61¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | MED BUY Falcons @ 48¢ | $104.2k | called |
| Lions vs. Panthers | MED BUY Lions @ 63¢ | $52.2k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Lions @ 66¢ | $97.9k | missed |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | MED BUY 49ers @ 62¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | HIGH BUY 49ers @ 60¢ | $549.6k 9.5× usual |
excluded |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | MED BUY Bengals @ 56¢ | $46.1k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 67¢ | $62.7k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Bills | MED BUY Patriots @ 26¢ | $83.9k | called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | MED BUY Rams @ 64¢ | $35.8k | called |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | MED BUY Cardinals @ 56¢ | $36.6k | missed |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 44¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Patriots vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 73¢ | $14.8k | missed |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 57¢ | $32.6k | missed |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Eagles @ 64¢ | $245.2k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $169.3k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 64¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 51¢ | $40.8k | called |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $73.4k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $188.5k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | LOW BUY Dolphins @ 16¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | MED BUY Chiefs @ 84¢ | $546.0k 9.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Rams (-2.5) | LOW BUY Broncos @ 52¢ | $20.2k | called |
 Texas A&M vs. LSU | LOW BUY LSU @ 76¢ | $22.0k | called |
| Falcons vs. Packers | MED BUY Falcons @ 32¢ | $49.6k | excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 72¢ | $243.0k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Commanders vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 65¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Packers @ 60¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW SELL Jets @ 40¢ | $27.4k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | MED BUY Jets @ 39¢ | $156.0k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Bengals vs. Texans | MED SELL Texans @ 58¢ | $81.2k | called |
| Fresno State vs. San Jose State | LOW BUY San Jose State @ 35¢ | $44.4k | missed |
| Bengals vs. Texans | MED BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $261.9k 4.5× usual |
missed |
 US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina | LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 57¢ | $20.5k | missed |
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $62.0k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $38.5k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $24.7k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $67.0k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY No @ 76¢ | $212.2k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH SELL No @ 48¢ | $296.2k 5.1× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $31.4k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 52¢ | $123.2k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 51¢ | $86.1k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $294.5k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $227.9k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | HIGH BUY No @ 46¢ | $456.2k 7.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | MED BUY Uruguay @ 64¢ | $43.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $112.8k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $71.1k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $439.2k 7.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $29.2k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $68.6k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $86.3k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL No @ 50¢ | $162.7k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $89.1k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $209.5k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY No @ 35¢ | $55.7k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $148.7k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $57.8k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $117.2k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $94.1k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
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