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What this means. A wallet put $58.5k on United States, at a price that gave it a 53% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+0.2 pts over 60 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$58.5k
BUY United States @ 53¢ · 110,335 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $10k4 fills in 1hProven wallet2.9× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet Zzzz87 took United States (buy) for $58.5k at an average 53¢. At that price the market implied a 53% chance for that side. The market resolved Belgium, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $58.5k+1
4 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 53¢ means
53%chance the market gave
−113American odds
$1.00paid per share if United States wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 53¢
- Implied odds
- 53.0%
- As American odds
- −113 no vig
- Size
- $58.5k
- Placed
- Jul 06, 17:14 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Belgium
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Zzzz87
- Tx
- 0xea8984d0…
This wallet's graded record
36/60+0.2 pts
expected 35.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -53 ptsUnited States price · entry 53¢ · resolved Belgium
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $41.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $19.7k | excluded |