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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did +0.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -0.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+0.4 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$462.9k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$13k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 94¢) and the edge is -0.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.26M
Last 30 days +$0 · $13.10M volume · 8,805 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.54M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
15%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $11.3k | missed |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 94.2¢ | $162.0k 7.0× usual |
called |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $122.2k 5.3× usual |
called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.2¢ | $28.3k | called |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.3¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $10.8k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $26.3k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $43.6k | called |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 10¢ | $23.2k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $14.2k | missed |
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